Autumn Budget on 28 October: What UK Employers Should Watch Before Their Next Hire

Wednesday 28 October 2026 is the date for John Healey’s first Autumn Budget as Chancellor. According to Which?, it’s the earliest autumn Budget since 2021, and it lands in the same weeks most UK firms are setting next year’s headcount.

That makes it a tricky moment to hire. Employer National Insurance, the 2027 National Living Wage, and new employment rights all affect what a role will cost, so plenty of businesses are waiting on the speech before they recruit an offshore HR administrator, a payroll assistant, or anyone else.

This guide sets out what’s already fixed, what could change on the day, and how to plan your next hire whichever way the announcements go.

Key takeaways

Why 28 October Lands in the Middle of Your Hiring Plans

Q4 is when budgets get signed off. A Budget at the end of October means any change to employer costs will be public before most of those numbers are final, which is helpful, as long as you wait for it.

Don’t expect fireworks, though. The OBR’s March forecast gave the government £23.6bn of headroom. The Financial Times now puts that nearer £12bn, according to a round-up from Smith & Williamson, and there’s not much you can give away with £12bn.

Healey has already said the Budget will rest on “fiscal discipline”. Most tax advisers read that as a quiet statement with a handful of smaller tweaks.

Firms are cautious anyway. In September, the Institute of Directors found 70% of businesses planned to freeze or cut investment, and hiring rarely holds up for long when investment doesn’t.

Employer National Insurance: Will the £5,000 Threshold Move?

This is the number most employers will be listening for. Since April 2025 you’ve paid 15% employer National Insurance on everything an employee earns above £5,000 a year.

There is some relief through the Employment Allowance, now £10,500 a year. It’s easy to miss, though, because you have to claim it through payroll at the start of each tax year. It doesn’t switch on by itself.

What the CBI and BRC Want From the Chancellor

Both the CBI and the British Retail Consortium have asked for the threshold to go back up to £6,000. In its Budget submission, the CBI argues this would make entry-level hiring less expensive.

Will it happen? Andy Burnham has admitted the 2025 rise put pressure on businesses. In the same breath he talked about “limited room for manoeuvre”, which isn’t the language of someone about to cut a tax.

How Much a £6,000 Threshold Would Save Per Employee

Take someone on £28,000. Their employer National Insurance today comes to £3,450 a year, and a £6,000 threshold would knock £150 off that.

Across 200 staff, £30,000 a year is worth having. For a business hiring one admin person, £150 won’t decide anything, so we’d budget on current rates and count any cut as a nice surprise.

National Living Wage 2027: What the Low Pay Commission Could Recommend

Right now the National Living Wage is £12.71 an hour, up 4.1% from April 2026. Younger workers saw a bigger jump: the 18 to 20 rate rose 8.5% to £10.85, according to the government’s own figures.

Last year’s rates came out on 26 November 2025, which was Budget day. If that happens again, the April 2027 figures could appear on 28 October or within a few days of it.

The Low Pay Commission’s remit asks for its advice by the end of October. The target hasn’t changed: two-thirds of median hourly earnings.

There’s one extra instruction in this year’s remit. The government wants the 18 to 20 rate brought in line with the full National Living Wage over time, so if you take on school leavers or apprentices, the gap between junior and adult pay will keep shrinking.

How a Higher Wage Floor Lifts Pay Further Up

Pay scales tend to move as a block. When the bottom rate goes up 50p, the person a grade above usually wants their gap kept, and so does the person above them.

That’s why the 2027 rate is worth watching even if no one on your payroll is near the minimum. It sets the tone for every pay review you’ll run next spring.

Employment Rights Act Changes Landing Before and After the Budget

Not everything that moves hiring costs comes from the Treasury. The Employment Rights Act is being switched on in phases, and three of those phases sit close to this Budget.

The January change is the one that catches people out. As Irwin Mitchell explains, anyone who joined on or before 1 July 2026 and is still employed on 1 January 2027 is protected from that day.

Rethink Probation Before the January 2027 Deadline

Plenty of UK contracts still use a six-month probation. Under the new rules, a decision made in month six (and then a notice period on top) could easily take you past the point where protection kicks in.

Shorter probations help. So does a proper rhythm in the first few months: regular one-to-ones, written notes, and an honest conversation at, say, week ten rather than week twenty-five.

The Salary Sacrifice Cap and Frozen Thresholds

This one isn’t on the table on 28 October because it’s already law. From 6 April 2029, only the first £2,000 a year of pension contributions paid through salary sacrifice will stay free of National Insurance.

Go over that and both you and the employee pay National Insurance on the excess, Blake Morgan confirms. Pension contributions you pay as the employer, on top of salary, are still exempt.

Hiring someone senior who’ll lean on salary sacrifice? Mention 2029 at offer stage. It’s a much easier talk now than in three years.

Income tax and National Insurance thresholds also stay frozen until 2030/31. Each pay rise drags a bit more income into higher bands, and staff notice that at review time.

Business Rates, Personal Allowance, and Other Autumn Budget UK Rumours

Some of the noise around this Budget is about costs outside payroll. Here’s what’s being talked about:

• Business rates: a 20% cut for pubs, clubs, and live music venues is confirmed. There’s talk of extending it to cafes and hairdressers, and of reviewing small business rates relief, which has been stuck at a £12,000 rateable value for ten years.
• Personal allowance: still £12,570. Reports say a rise has been discussed, though the Prime Minister has played it down.
• Capital gains tax: reportedly the favourite for raising money, which matters more to owners than to your payroll.

The Real Cost of a £28,000 UK Hire Today

Here’s what an office or admin role on £28,000 costs before anything changes, based on 2026/27 rates set out by Protax:

Sick pay deserves its own line now. Statutory Sick Pay is £116.75 a week, and since 6 April 2026 it’s paid from the first day off with no waiting days. Two or three short absences a year used to cost very little; now they don’t.

Then add recruitment fees, a laptop, desk space, training, and holiday cover. The £32,103 figure is where the cost starts, not where it ends.

Nobody’s saying stop hiring. The question worth asking is which roles have to be on your UK payroll, and which could sit somewhere else.

A Simple Hiring Plan for Before, During, and After Budget Day

You don’t have to pause recruitment for a fortnight. A bit of sequencing is enough.

Deciding Where Each Role Should Sit

Front-of-house roles usually need to be local. Bookkeeping, credit control, and admin support often don’t, and plenty of UK firms already run them with remote staff who work UK hours.

Offshore staffing is one way to do that. Typically the provider employs the person in their own country and you pay one monthly fee. They aren’t on your UK payroll, so UK employer National Insurance and auto-enrolment don’t work the same way.

We’d be the first to say it doesn’t suit everything. If a role needs face-to-face contact, a UK-regulated sign-off, or systems you can’t open up remotely, keep it in-house.

Finance and admin work is a different story. An offshore finance assistant or an offshore virtual bookkeeper can handle month-end, reconciliations, and supplier invoices, while a remote business administrator can look after diaries, data, and reporting.

Want the figures side by side? Our cost calculator compares an offshore hire with the UK equivalent, role by role.

Where This Leaves Your Next Hire

The 28 October Autumn Budget might trim employer National Insurance, set a new National Living Wage, or leave both alone. Employment law will tighten in January regardless, and a UK hire won’t get any less expensive.

Plan on today’s rates, update them once Healey sits down, and decide each role on its own merits. If you’d like a second opinion on which roles could work offshore, have a chat with our team.

“Planning your 2027 headcount? Tell us which roles you’re weighing up, and we’ll show you which could work offshore and what they’d cost.Book a consultation →